Obama 353, John McCain 185.
(or something like that)
Whoever you are rooting for, this is what you’re looking for on Election night.
2008
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2008
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How they voted
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Competitive
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Leaning McCain
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in 2004
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Leaning Obama
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States
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9
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Alabama
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|
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3
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Alaska
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|
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10
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Arizona
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|
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6
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Arkansas
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|
|
|
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California
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55
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Colorado
|
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9
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Connecticut
|
7
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Delaware
|
3
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D.C.
|
3
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|
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Florida
|
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27
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15
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Georgia
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|
|
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Hawaii
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4
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4
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Idaho
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|
|
|
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Illinois
|
21
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|
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Indiana
|
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11
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Iowa
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7
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6
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Kansas
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|
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8
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Kentucky
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|
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9
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Louisiana
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|
|
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Maine
|
4
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Maryland
|
10
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Massachusetts
|
12
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Michigan
|
17
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Minnesota
|
10
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6
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Mississippi
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|
|
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Missouri
|
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11
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3
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Montana
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5
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Nebraska
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|
|
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Nevada
|
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5
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New Hampshire
|
4
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|
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New Jersey
|
15
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|
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New Mexico
|
|
5
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New York
|
31
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|
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North Carolina
|
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15
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3
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North Dakota
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|
|
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Ohio
|
|
20
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7
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Oklahoma
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|
|
|
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Oregon
|
7
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|
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Pennsylvania
|
21
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Rhode Island
|
4
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8
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South Carolina
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|
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3
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South Dakota
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|
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11
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Tennessee
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|
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34
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Texas
|
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5
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Utah
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|
|
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Vermont
|
3
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|
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Virginia
|
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13
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Washington
|
11
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5
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West Virginia
|
|
|
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Wisconsin
|
10
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3
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Wyoming
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|
|
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Sure States
|
|
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163
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McCain v Obama
|
259
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116
|
|
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270
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to win
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Obama has 259 fairly sure states. McCain only has 163. Obama’s also ahead in Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado, giving him over the 270 needed. And even for many of the other toss-up states, he’s only behind in Indiana.
As the polls close, these are the states you need to watch for:
East Coast:
Obama should win everything north of Washington, DC.; if not, there could be trouble for him; if McCain pulls of Pennsylvania, it will be a huge surprise.
Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida – If McCain wins all three, this could be a long night; if Obama wins all three, then it’s over. Obama will be happy with Virginia, but a win in Florida will also mean a quick evening. Simply put, Obama only needs one of the three.
Ohio, Indiana-- If McCain wins both of these (along with the first three), all eyes will turn to some crucial states in the heart of America. If Obama wins both, it’s over; if he wins just Ohio, it’s also over.
Central Time Zone:
Missouri– If McCain wins the first three (FL, VA, NC) and the next two (IN, OH), Obama may be in trouble; Under any other scenario, a Missouri pick up by Obama will probably end the race.
Mountain / Pacific:
Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada – for McCain to win, he has to win every state I listed above; If Obama holds on to Colorado, he will win the election; otherwise, winning both NM and NV will give him 269 votes, and Senator McCain will also have 269. In that scenario, the election will go to the newly elected Congress which is expected to be heavily Democratic. Thus, Obama will become the next President in a tied electoral race.
Confused? Well, it will be interesting to see how much Senator McCain can close down the gap. McCain can only win a close race; if there is a Landslide, watch for the Senate races to see how close to the magical figure of 60 Senators the Democrats can get.
What do I think? Obama 353, John McCain 185. It will be a Landslide, with the popular vote close to 52% v 45% (with the others going to minor candidates). The Democrats will probably end up with 58-59 Senate seats (one short of the magical 60), and a commanding majority in the House. This will be an election with a Mandate.
(I’ve been wrong the last 5 elections, so that’s how much you can trust me.)
Contrary to what people may think, Sarah Palin’s stardom will fade, and she will be blamed for the loss. The Republican Party have some major soul searching to do with a clear split between the ultra-right social conservatives versus the more moderate fiscal conservatives (the Georgetown crowd).
What does it all mean? It means that unless McCain pulls off a miracle (in which case the election might end up in court), CNN, MSNBC, and FOX News will have nothing to cover after November 5th. That’ll give everyone some time off. Which may cause a recession in the media world.
2008-11-04 04:03:35 GMT
